Kevin Costner’s Final Shot: Can Horizon: An American Saga Be Rescued Before Chapter 2?
After his successful run in Taylor Sheridan’s Yellowstone, Kevin Costner continues to explore familiar territory with his latest film, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1. In this ambitious project, which he wrote, produced, directed, and starred in, Costner delves into the American Civil War era. The film, the first of a planned four-part series, premiered at the 2024 Cannes Film Festival.
While headlines buzz about Costner’s recent departure from Yellowstone ahead of the second part of its final season, he now faces lukewarm reviews for this passion project. Initial box office numbers and demographic data suggest that Costner may need to consider alternative strategies to recoup his investment, especially with the second installment set to release in August.
Disappointing Box Office for Horizon: An American Saga
Costner’s Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 has struggled to resonate with audiences. The film, which debuted at Cannes before its North American release on June 28, 2024, has an impressive cast, including Sienna Miller and Sam Worthington, yet it underperformed significantly at the box office.
According to The Hollywood Reporter, the film garnered just $11 million during its opening weekend, a stark contrast to its $100 million production budget. This lackluster performance suggests not only weak ticket sales but also a failure to attract a younger audience.
PostTrak exit surveys indicate that over 60% of ticket buyers were over 45, with nearly half being over 55—an age group that typically doesn’t dominate opening weekend viewership. Conversely, only 11% of viewers were between 18 and 24, 14% between 25 and 34, and 11% between 35 and 44.
Given Yellowstone’s immense popularity, it would seem logical for Costner to expect similar success with another Western. However, the film currently holds a disappointing 43% rating on Rotten Tomatoes based on 98 reviews, despite a healthier audience score of 71%. The stark contrast between critical reception and audience feedback highlights the challenges facing Costner.
Potential Paths to Recovery
Costner has invested considerable effort and resources into making Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 a reality, including $38 million of his own funds to kickstart the project before Warner Bros. came on board as the distributor. However, the film’s lackluster box office performance raises concerns about financial viability, particularly with the second film’s imminent release.
Even if the film manages to improve its box office performance in the coming weeks, experts indicate that it will still struggle to break even due to its disappointing opening.
ComScore’s chief box office analyst, Paul Dergarabedian, suggests that Costner’s best chance for financial recovery lies in the film’s release on Video-On-Demand (VOD), priced around $20 per rental. This strategy could tap into the older demographic that has shown interest in the film, making it more accessible to those who prefer watching at home.
The streaming potential for this franchise is substantial, especially among older viewers, who typically enjoy this genre. While this may provide a necessary lifeline for Costner and his project, it remains to be seen whether he will embrace this route as a viable solution moving forward.
