Box Office Outlook: Kevin Costner’s ‘Horizon’ Aims for Modest $10M-$12M U.S. Debut
In recent weeks, Kevin Costner has been on a multicity tour to promote Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1, the first installment of a planned four-part Western series that he directs and stars in. He has appeared on local morning shows, participated in press junkets, and even visited a military installation.
Costner has also recorded personalized messages for various theater chains located in America’s heartland. This includes a special video with Greg Marcus, the friendly CEO of Marcus Theatres, which is being shown in their cinemas. Both Costner and Warner Bros. are hoping that this focus on Middle America will drive support for Horizon during the Fourth of July weekend and beyond. Last year, the indie film Sound of Freedom unexpectedly became a summer blockbuster after its July Fourth release, thanks in part to the backing from Middle America. While the two films are quite different, Horizon is banking on a similar wave of enthusiasm, especially from Costner’s established fan base and fans of Yellowstone, the popular TV series he left to pursue this project.
This Friday, Costner will begin to see how effective his efforts have been when Horizon opens in thousands of theaters across the U.S. Tracking services like The Quorum and the National Research Group vary in their predictions, but the consensus is that the film is projected to earn between $10 million and $12 million in its opening weekend.
For a film with a production budget of $100 million, those numbers may be disappointing. Some industry insiders believe that tracking services might not be capturing the target audience for Horizon — specifically, older male adults, particularly those in smaller towns and cities across the West, South, and Midwest.
Costner’s dedication to the project is noteworthy; he invested $38 million of his own money when studios were hesitant to finance it, despite his acclaim for directing and starring in the Oscar-winning Dances With Wolves. Eventually, Warner Bros. came on board to handle distribution and marketing for a fee, while Costner’s investment, alongside funds from two undisclosed investors and foreign distribution rights sales, helped finance the film. Costner is also covering marketing expenses himself.
On the international front, Costner and K5 International presented Horizon Chapter 1 at the Cannes Film Festival, where it premiered to a lengthy standing ovation. However, critics were less favorable, with the film currently holding a 49 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
Described as a multifaceted narrative, Horizon delves into the expansion and settlement of the American West during the Civil War years from 1861 to 1865, exploring the allure of the Old West and its triumphs and losses through the struggles of many.
Costner stars alongside Sienna Miller, Jena Malone, Isabelle Fuhrman, Ella Hunt, Georgia MacPhail, Abbey Lee, and Wasé Chief.
The future of the remaining Horizon films is uncertain. Costner has begun filming Chapter 3 but requires additional funding to realize his vision.
“I don’t want to let this pile of things I have — whether it’s money or possessions — control me,” Costner explained to The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg at Cannes. “I’m going to keep enough to ensure my family is taken care of, but I realized that chasing material wealth could limit my creativity.”
